aubergine wrote:Well, the WZ canon states that nukes were targeted at "every major city around the world", so a good starting point is calculate number of major cities (considering many small towns in 2013 will be major cities in 2086 due to the world's population reaching 14 billion by that time if current growth rate continues) and then you have rough number of nukes.
I may sound like a bit of a pessimist here, but I highly doubt that we'd be growing to 14 billion people anytime within the 21st century. I believe that much of the world is currently suffering from overpopulation issues, and that it was only recently that statistics showed that more people were living in cities than in the country. If we were to reach 14 billion as early as 2086, then I'm willing to bet that it would be VERY unsustainable, with the average person in the world being worse off due to malnourishment and resource depletion. If the world doesn't get nuked by 2086, then I'd bet that a Malthusian Catastrophe would happen, as social order breaks down, and wars over scant resources rage on, and THAT would be our Collapse.
Also, "major city" is a relative term. I bet that, back in the ancient world, cities with more than 100,000 people were considered "major cities". If the planet's population was 14 billion, then I'd bet that a "major city" there would be an arcology, since they're the only kinds of cities that I know of that could handle such high population densities whilst having minimal impact on the environment.